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Friday, April 5, 2013

Use Analyst Disappointment To Buy Toll Brothers


Seeking Alpha

Use Analyst Disappointment To Buy Toll Brothers

Apr 1 2013, 14:18  |  about: TOL, includes: KBH, LEN, RYL, SPF
Disclosure: I am long TOL. (More...)
Sometimes it pays to miss estimates. A disappointing quarter can cause analysts to lower earnings forecasts, making it easier to beat the next time around.
That's the case with Toll Brothers (TOL), the luxury homebuilder. Last quarter, Toll earned 3 cents, way below consensus 10 cents. Disappointed, the analysts drastically lowered estimates for this quarter. Notice the extreme decline in forecast versus other homebuilders:
By the drastic drop in forecast, you'd think Toll had a terrible last quarter. It didn't. Revenue increased 32%. Income before taxes rose from -6.4 million to 8.3 million. Backlog increased 66%. The quarter was nothing to cry about - expectations were just impossibly high.
Since the February 20 call, Toll has lagged its peers. It is down 5% while Ryland (RYL), Lennar (LEN), KB Homes (KBH), and Standard Pacific (SPF) are up 4 to 14%.
(click to enlarge)
Now that expectations have come down, Toll can more easily deliver an earnings beat. My prediction: Toll will clobber estimates, just as it handily beat them in the April, July, and October 2012 quarters. Low analyst expectations have given investors an excellent entry point to buy Toll Brothers before its May earnings "surprise."
Additional disclosure: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.
TOL's management discussing earnings
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    Stephen Rosenman
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    TOL VS. ETF ALTERNATIVES
    ETFsTODAY3 MTHS1 YRYTD
    TOL1.1%-4.5%38.9%-0.5%
    XHB0.7%4.7%37.7%8.7%
    RWK-0.1%8.1%14.3%12.8%
    MDY-0.1%6.5%14.3%10.1%
    MVV-0.2%13.2%29.3%21.2%
    PRFZ-0.2%5.0%13.1%8.9%
    EZM-0.3%6.0%13.8%9.8%
    KME-1.2%7.5%26.7%11.9%
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